diff --git a/src/lib/server/pending-updates-core.ts b/src/lib/server/pending-updates-core.ts
index c7385ea..e23f8f0 100644
--- a/src/lib/server/pending-updates-core.ts
+++ b/src/lib/server/pending-updates-core.ts
@@ -58,3 +58,25 @@ export function pendingRowsToClear(
 
 	return toClear;
 }
+
+/**
+ * Count pending rows that still map to a LIVE container (#1006). The dashboard tile
+ * used to show the raw row count, but a row is keyed on containerId, so a container
+ * recreated/removed OUT-OF-BAND (compose CLI, docker directly, Watchtower, image retag)
+ * leaves an orphan row nothing prunes between checks. The containers page already
+ * live-matches (a row shows only if its containerId exists), so the tile over-counted
+ * and disagreed with the list. Counting only rows whose containerId is a currently
+ * live container makes the tile agree with the list — no schema change, and it never
+ * hides a real update (a live container with a pending row is still counted).
+ */
+export function countLivePending(
+	pending: Array<{ containerId: string }>,
+	liveContainerIds: Iterable<string>
+): number {
+	const live = liveContainerIds instanceof Set ? liveContainerIds : new Set(liveContainerIds);
+	let n = 0;
+	for (const row of pending ?? []) {
+		if (row?.containerId && live.has(row.containerId)) n++;
+	}
+	return n;
+}
diff --git a/src/routes/api/dashboard/stats/+server.ts b/src/routes/api/dashboard/stats/+server.ts
index aa757b6..2e148f2 100644
--- a/src/routes/api/dashboard/stats/+server.ts
+++ b/src/routes/api/dashboard/stats/+server.ts
@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ import {
 	getDiskUsage
 } from '$lib/server/docker';
 import { listComposeStacks } from '$lib/server/stacks';
+import { countLivePending } from '$lib/server/pending-updates-core';
 import { authorize } from '$lib/server/authorize';
 import { parseLabels } from '$lib/utils/label-colors';
 
@@ -281,7 +282,16 @@ export const GET: RequestHandler = async ({ cookies, url }) => {
 					today: eventStats.today
 				};
 
-				envStats.containers.pendingUpdates = pendingUpdates.length;
+				// Count only pending rows that still map to a live container (#1006):
+				// an out-of-band recreate/removal leaves orphan rows nothing prunes, and
+				// the containers page already live-matches, so the raw count over-reported.
+				// GUARD: only live-match when we actually HAVE the container list. If
+				// listContainers timed out (`containers` is []) while there ARE pending
+				// rows, the list is untrustworthy — fall back to the raw count rather than
+				// hide real updates (over-count is annoying; under-count hides updates).
+				envStats.containers.pendingUpdates = containers.length > 0
+					? countLivePending(pendingUpdates, containers.map((c: any) => c.id))
+					: pendingUpdates.length;
 
 			} catch (error) {
 				// Convert technical error messages to user-friendly ones
diff --git a/src/routes/api/dashboard/stats/stream/+server.ts b/src/routes/api/dashboard/stats/stream/+server.ts
index bdc2c0a..c1d82fa 100644
--- a/src/routes/api/dashboard/stats/stream/+server.ts
+++ b/src/routes/api/dashboard/stats/stream/+server.ts
@@ -20,6 +20,7 @@ import {
 	DockerConnectionError
 } from '$lib/server/docker';
 import { listComposeStacks } from '$lib/server/stacks';
+import { countLivePending } from '$lib/server/pending-updates-core';
 import { authorize } from '$lib/server/authorize';
 import { prefersJSON, sseToJSON } from '$lib/server/sse';
 import type { EnvironmentStats } from '../+server';
@@ -220,6 +221,8 @@ async function getEnvironmentStatsProgressive(
 			today: eventStats.today
 		};
 
+		// pendingUpdates is live-matched below once the container list is fetched (#1006);
+		// seed to the raw count so a container-list timeout still shows something.
 		envStats.containers.pendingUpdates = pendingUpdates.length;
 
 		if (recentEventsResult.events.length > 0) {
@@ -309,7 +312,11 @@ async function getEnvironmentStatsProgressive(
 				envStats.containers.paused = containers.filter((c: any) => c.state === 'paused').length;
 				envStats.containers.restarting = containers.filter((c: any) => c.state === 'restarting').length;
 				envStats.containers.unhealthy = containers.filter((c: any) => c.health === 'unhealthy').length;
-				// Note: pendingUpdates is already set from DB query, preserve it
+				// Refine the seeded raw count against the (now non-null) container list so
+				// the tile agrees with the containers page (#1006). `containers` is
+				// guaranteed real here (the null-guard above threw on a timeout), so no
+				// empty-list fallback needed - unlike the non-stream twin.
+				envStats.containers.pendingUpdates = countLivePending(pendingUpdates, containers.map((c: any) => c.id));
 				envStats.loading!.containers = false;
 
 				onPartialUpdate({